06 nov 2024
The World Trade Organization's latest data reveals Italy's historic export surpassing Japan in early 2024, highlighting significant shifts in global trade dynamics over the past decade.
External shocks like the pandemic and geopolitical tensions have disrupted traditional globalization models, affecting major economies.
While China and the US maintain strong positions, European countries, especially Germany, face declining export shares.
Italy, however, stands out with its robust export model driven by quality, innovation, and investment, challenging EU's stringent environmental policies.
The World Trade Organization's recent update for the second quarter of 2024 confirms Italy's remarkable achievement in surpassing Japan's export levels in the first half of the year.
This milestone is part of broader changes in global trade competition over the last decade, with international commerce undergoing rapid transformation.
External factors such as the pandemic, automotive crisis, supply chain disruptions, and geopolitical tensions have challenged established globalization models, impacting traditional export economies.
Comparing G20 export data from the first half of 2024 to 2014, China has significantly increased its market share from 19.6% to 24.8%, while the US has slightly improved from 14.8% to 14.9%. Russia's market share dropped from 4.7% to 3% due to its conflict with Ukraine and subsequent isolation.
Japan's export share fell from 6.3% to 4.9%, affected by yen devaluation and missed competitive opportunities.
South Korea and Canada also saw slight declines, while Australia's share rose marginally.
Emerging economies like Mexico, Brazil, Turkey, and Indonesia have modestly increased their shares, while India, South Africa, and Argentina maintained their positions.
European economies, particularly Germany, have suffered from China's rise and the US's stability, with Germany's share falling from 14% to 12.6%, France from 5.5% to 4.7%, and post-Brexit UK from 4.8% to 3.6%. Italy, however, has maintained a 5% market share, climbing from seventh to fourth among global exporters.
The European Commission could learn from these trends, especially Germany's decline without Russian energy and overreliance on the Chinese market.
Italy's success, based on quality, innovation, and investment, contrasts with EU's rigid environmental policies.
Italy's real investment in machinery and equipment grew by 18.6% since late 2019, while Spain, France, and Germany saw declines.
Italy's investment in machinery and technology as a percentage of GDP rose from 5.7% in 2014 to 7.3% in 2023, leading Europe.
With advanced machinery and technology, Italy reduces CO2 emissions and excels in packaging and recycling, a path the EU should follow.
However, EU's stringent environmental and energy transition policies could hinder Italy's model, crafted by bureaucrats prioritizing political interests over manufacturing.
These 'suicidal' rules threaten EU industry, benefiting China and the US instead of global environmental balance.